The PML-N government, under the visionary leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has set Pakistan on the path to economic stability and prosperity within its first year in office. The steady and significant rise in exports, both in terms of quantity and dollar value, will play an important role in attaining a current account surplus and improving key macroeconomic indicators.
In the first seven months of the current fiscal year (July 2024 to January 2025), Pakistan’s total exports reached $19.6 billion, compared to $17.8 billion during the same period last year. The country’s international credit ratings have improved during the PML-N government’s first year in office, with consistently positive outlook reviews from global financial institutions.
However, President Donald Trump’s imposition of the “Liberation Day” tariffs has created significant challenges for Pakistan’s strategic vision to develop an export-driven economy. The 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani goods, particularly textiles, threatens to reduce demand in the US market, potentially leading to an estimated export loss of $564 million in the fiscal year 2025-26.
Despite these hurdles, Pakistan maintains a competitive edge over several regional competitors; for instance, Bangladesh faces a 37 per cent tariff, Thailand 36 per cent, Vietnam 54 per cent, Indonesia 32 per cent, and China up to 145 per cent. In response, the Pakistani government is actively engaging in diplomatic efforts, including plans for a high-level delegation to Washington, aiming to negotiate tariff relief and explore avenues to restore its Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) status.
The prime minister has set an ambitious goal of achieving an annual export target of $60 billion within five years. Given his vision, his team’s collective and tireless efforts, and the PML-N’s proven track record of boosting exports in previous governments, this target appears highly attainable. The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) also plays a pivotal role in achieving higher export targets.
Data from the first half of the fiscal year 2024-25 confirms a significant 10.52 per cent increase in exports across various sectors. This steady rise is attributed to overcoming tariff and non-tariff barriers in exports to different regions, and implementing essential measures to address supply chain constraints, inflationary pressures, and sluggish global growth.
The three primary sectors of the economy — agriculture, manufacturing, and services — have shown better performance compared to the same period last year. A reduced trade deficit, combined with stable foreign exchange remittances averaging $3 billion per month from overseas Pakistani workers, is contributing to economic stabilisation. This trend has been a hallmark of all PML-N governments, both past and present. Additionally, the country has recorded its lowest inflation rate in a decade, at 2.41 per cent.
Despite negative campaigns by shortsighted opposition politicians, the PML-N government has successfully averted any risk of default or the loss of Pakistan’s GSP+ status in the European Union. The US GSP programme, which provided duty-free access to certain Pakistani products, expired on 31 December 2020, during the PTI government’s tenure, affecting all beneficiary countries. The current PML-N government is actively engaging in efforts advocating for the programme’s renewal, aiming to restore these trade benefits.
While reviewing key export statistics from the first half of FY 2024-25, Pakistan’s exports saw a significant 10.52 per cent increase, rising to $16.5 billion from $14.9 billion during the same period in the previous financial year. This double-digit growth in just six months of a fiscal year is unprecedented for any government in office in Pakistan’s history.
While the imposition of steep US tariffs presents a short-term challenge, it also opens the door to strategic recalibration.
The textile sector witnessed a 10 per cent increase in exports, reaching $9.08 billion. This growth includes higher exports of knitwear, ready-made garments, bed linen, cotton fabrics, cotton yarn, towels, and other textile products. Accounting for approximately 77 per cent of Pakistan’s exports to the United States, this sector will be most affected by new US tariffs. However, astute diplomacy and strategic decisions can minimise the expected decline in textile exports.
The food and cereals sector recorded an 18 per cent increase in exports, reaching $4.61 billion. Notably, rice exports grew by 19 per cent, reaching $2.19 billion. Other food and agricultural exports, including cereals, fish and fish preparations, tobacco, sugar, meat, and meat products, also saw positive growth. However, exports of fruits, vegetables, spices, and nuts experienced a decline due to reduced international demand.
The IT sector showed remarkable growth, with exports increasing by 21 per cent to $1.86 billion, alongside gains in related technologies and services. Under the Prime Minister’s Uraan Pakistan programme, the PML-N government has set an ambitious target of $10 billion in IT exports by 2029, reflecting an impressive compound annual growth rate of 28 per cent.
Cement exports have risen by 24.8 per cent, reaching $188 million. Other sectors also experienced significant growth, including chemicals and pharmaceuticals (10 per cent increase), petroleum-related products (85 per cent increase), automotive parts, and various segments of large-scale manufacturing.
The success in export-led growth under the PML-N government is driven by better policies, enhanced efficiency, institutional capacity building, stronger regional and global trade engagements, and the development of a more skilled workforce.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently concluded successful state visits to Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Belarus which are expected to boost bilateral trade and exports. Over the past year, he has actively participated in key multilateral summits and conferences, alongside bilateral visits both by him and reciprocated by significant heads of state and government.
The prime minister and his team’s vision focuses on strategic financial partnerships and collaborations with major economies and international financial institutions. The government aims to diversify export sectors and expand into new global markets. The PML-N government has actively engaged with multilateral organisations such as the EU, OIC, D-8, SCO, and AU to strengthen Pakistan’s presence in their respective economic zones.
Further efforts are needed to enhance manufacturing capabilities, streamline trade regulations, and empower young entrepreneurs through targeted initiatives. An increased focus on high-tech exports, regulatory reforms, and policy advancements will further drive export growth and solidify Pakistan’s path toward sustainable economic development.
While the imposition of steep US tariffs presents a short-term challenge, it also opens the door to strategic recalibration. With significantly higher tariffs on regional competitors such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and China, Pakistan retains a relative advantage that can be tactically leveraged. The current PML-N government’s commitment to economic diplomacy, diversification of export markets, and value-added production provides a timely response to evolving global trade dynamics. Rather than viewing tariffs as a setback, Pakistan must seize this moment to expand into untapped markets across Central Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, while deepening its presence in the EU under the GSP+ regime.
The writer has a diverse career as a medical doctor, writer, and businessman across multiple countries, with a special interest in research and narrative building.
